I. INTRODUCTION

   a.   Who am I (i.e., Dr. Timothy Robert Silberg)

                i.   Who are you? And why are you here today?

  b.   What is ‘system dynamics’ as a method?

                i.   Has anyone applied this modeling method and in what setting?

  c.   How I’ve applied system dynamics to address real world issues

  d.   How system dynamics has been applied to address real world issues

  e.   Learning objectives for group–

               i.   Conceptually, understand what systems modeling entails 

               ii.   The steps you can use to build a system dynamics in a group setting for your work

               iii.   After building the model, operate it, assess its structure (e.g., run tests) and evaluate their results (e.g., robustness) to see if adaptations can be made

II. BACKGROUND INSTRUCTION

  a.   What are systems and components make them up?

  b.   What is systems behavior (e.g., feedback, balancing, reinforcing)?

  c.   What does a systems model look like and how is it informed (by causal loop diagrams)? Causal loop diagrams show us where feedback behavior lies (and most likely the tipping points in systems)

  d.   Define what causal loop diagrams are and show an example

III. APPLICATION (Round 1 PRACTICAL WORK)

  a.   What are the sectors present in today’s workshop who are working on controlling malaria? Let’s divide these into four groups that will work on the problem from their perspective. 

  b.   Go into breakout rooms (or separate physical rooms) 

             i.   Group work. Instructions – Somone will pose the question to the group – “Why has ‘x’ intervention not been successful?  Then, they will write the response down using the word document template provided in a shared google folder. With each response, ask “Why?” until you’ve finished five iterations.

  c.   Come back out from break out rooms. And receive instructions for next step.

            i.   Group work (go back into breakout rooms) – The person posing the question should ask, what is quantifiable in each of the responses. Then, using the word document (in the google drive), try connecting each quantifiable point in a logical loop (like a story). Determine if each connection has a negative or positive association. 

IV. DISCUSSION

   a.   Each group presents example. 

   b.   Each group discusses a one component that connects to another group.

   c.   Each group discusses the “tipping point” found between their issues and perhaps a new type of intervention to disseminate that would have systems wide impact. 

V. BREAK

   a.   Make sure to download the Vensim (free modeling material)

   b.   Make sure you have access the Vensim models. Download them as well

VI. BACKGROUND INSTRUCTION 

   a.   How to start building a model – begin with a dynamic hypothesis.

   b.   A dynamic hypothesis will indicate what behavior may occur; hence, why we’re going to model.

   c.   There are archetypes you can use to build your own model. The type of model that will be worked on today is called a SIR model (susceptible, infected, recovered).

           i.   In this model, you’ll see stocks, flows and auxiliary variables. Let’s define what they are before we begin modeling. These are the basic nuts and bults to building models. 

VII. APPLICATION (Round 2 PRACTICAL WORK)

   a.   Open interface and set timeframe. This helps you specify what timespan a model will run in

   b.   Now, add stocks. These specify what populations we will be monitoring.

   c.   Now, add flows. These moderate how much the population grows or decreases over time

   d.   Now, attach the stocks to flows. These will specify what fraction of the population increases or decreases

   e.   Now, add auxillary variables. These will specify what affects the flows. 

   f.   Now, add intermediary variables. These allow for stocks to feeback into the auxillary variables (as some are not fixed values). 

   g.   Now, add ghost variables (as sometimes variables need to be attached to other parameters that are on the opposite side of the model).

   h.   Now, lets download the entire model. This has multiple sectors in it, not just one that involves insects, but humans as well

   i.   Now add values to auxiliary in the model using the values provided to you in the document located in the google drive. 

   j.   Now apply equations to parameters that are interconnected.

   k.   Now, run the scenarios, which are outlined in the documents. Before running them, name them so you can determine which ones they are in a graph later. 

VIII. DISCUSSION

   a.   What are your thoughts about the results? How can you test to see if they are true or not.

   b.   What are your thoughts about the structure? What would you change and/or modify?

IX. CLOSE OUT

   a.   Thank you for your hard word today

   b.   Be inspired to develop models with other people

   c.   Remember – it’s not what the exact results say, but what behavior they show

   d.   Remember – potential adopters will only buy into the results (or interventions informed) by the model when they know how you built the model. Build it with them!